Interesting question but isn’t the question much bigger than this little skirmish in the Digital Media Revolution and isn’t the cable operator that doesn’t respond in a timely manner just helping the media companies regain turf?
How people consume content is changing …
Just last Sunday morning, I sat on the couch with my two kids with “some” TV show on (I really don’t remember what show and I am in tune to what they watch). I was able to steal my kids’ attention away from the big tube to old Underdog cartoons on my iPhone – score one for YouTube vs. transitional viewing habits. Why? Well, because, I was able to watch what I want when I wanted it without having to move.
Just this week I was at a business dinner and the topic turned to Boston Sports (after all this is the “Golden Era of Boston Sports” or the good old days as our grandparents used to say). Well we brought up Fitzy from www.townienews.com (rated M for maturity) since many of the people were from out of town and he represents the stereotypically Boston fan. To the joy of everyone at the table, I was again able to access Fitzy videos on YouTube. Score two for YouTube.
Why is this relevant – well, people are going to get paid – whether it is pay-per-view / download, ad supported viewing, product placements, subscription, etc. In order to create high value content, there needs to be a business model in place to support it, that is, an undeniable truth. The difference is – people want to consume content on their own terms and not be held hostage to the old distribution models.
So – if the cable companies or any of the other traditional delivery companies do not want to respond to the consumers’ demands, they are going to become just a dumb broadband pipe. Imagine the impact on your stock value if you strip out the revenue associated with the delivery of high value content and just become a commodity connectivity company. This is the precise reason that Verizon is investing so heavily in FIOS. This trend has a name “over the top”, where Media companies and other upstart Video/Content aggregation portals are able to bypass the content middlemen (read: cable and satellite providers) and deliver their content right to the consumer.
What does this enable them to do? Since cable got a foothold in our homes in the 1970s, media companies have had to share their advertising revenue with the cable operators. If you are sitting in the board room of a broadcaster, this was a necessary but unholy alliance. You were basically forced to share your revenue with the cable company because they provided the entry into the home.
Since broadcasters controlled ad rates since the days of Sarnoff and radio, they did not like this sharing model. Fast forward to October 6, 2006 and Google buys YouTube — wow $1.65B for a cute little video portal. The reverberation you hear today is the tremors that were heard in the board rooms of both the broadcasters and cable operators. Why? Because Google is attempting to muscle their way into their unholy alliance and do what it has done for Internet advertising (projected to be a $40b market this year WW) to every form of advertising worldwide (projected to be a $430b market this year). Google’s intention to capture market share away from the broadcaster/cable alliance is built into their $639 share price and imagine what will happen to the share prices of broadcasters and cable companies if Google succeeds in controlling ad rates and forces itself onto the content providers as their new partners?So what is going on is the Digital Media Revolution and there are at least 3 camps (I have not mentioned Apple, Tivo, Cisco, Microsoft yet and they all want to be heard from and to get their fair share of the pie) all vying to control how content is consumed and ultimately how we pay for it. Is all lost for the broadcasters? Well, no. Actually, the “Interweb” has armed the content providers with a weapon against their unholy “partners”. NBC has two weapons in this revolution - Hulu and NBCDirect – both aimed at delivering their content to the consumer without having to share revenue – either PPV or Ad generated with their “partners”. If content truly is King, then these two services are the queens or at least the Rooks and Knights.
So, if your cable company wants to send you their 800 number so you can cancel your service, they are merely setting themselves up to be just like one of the many failed dot-com companies of the late 1990s (anyone remember Pets.com?). You will find another way to get the content you want, when you want it on the device you want to view it on. The revolution is ongoing and if you prefer Fox Business over CNBC or you demand both - you will be able to consume them on your own terms. There are some very powerful companies with their eyes on dominating the media and entertainment markets - and thus ad revenue. All they have to do is meet your terms.